Cleveland at Golden State

Golden State has been out of sync the last two games, one from the suspension of Draymond Green (who is back) along with the injury to Andrew Bogut, plus playing on the road the last contest. They likely were focused on a championship parade, but now it's gut-check time in a surprising Game 7. However, they earned home court during their record-setting regular season, and home court has been a huge edge in this year's playoffs. This is a Golden State team that during the regular season was tops in the NBA in scoring (114.9 points per game), field goal shooting (.487), three-point shooting (.416), and third in field goal defense (43.5% shooting allowed). They haven't been simply a great team, but historically great. Steph Curry is in his prime at age 28, as is Green (26), and Klay Thompson (26). Pressure? That trio already has an NBA title under their belts, winning the crown a year ago. They also just came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat Oklahoma City. The Warriors are 36-17 ATS after a loss. Game 7s are often defensive duels with everything on the line. The last Game 7 in the Finals was 2013, and it sailed UNDER in a 95-88 Miami win over San Antonio. The Spurs shot 37.8% (6-19 from long range) while Miami shot 43.9% at home. The first quarter scoring was just 18-16 as teams usually bring their best defense right from the opening tip. On the road Cleveland will have to focus on defense first, and the Cavs are 7-3-1 UNDER the total against the West, plus 10-4-1 UNDER when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Warriors play their best defense at home, too, 19-6-2 UNDER at home against a team with a winning road record. Both teams will bring their best defensive efforts, and the Warriors tallied just 11 points in the first quarter Thursday on the road. The Warriors are 11-5 UNDER after a spread loss, and this game is more likely to resemble Game 4, which was the only game of the series that wasn't a blowout, and also going UNDER the posted total. Golden State is a dominant home team (50-4 straight up counting the playoffs) and is 34-15-2 ATS playing on two days of rest. The Warriors are also a terrific bounce back team after getting embarrassed, 23-10-2 ATS following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Cavaliers are just 4-9 ATS at Golden State, and the wagering value is on the home team to win a defensive game, including the first half. Play Golden State on the Moneyline in Game 7, the FIRST HALF UNDER, and the FULL GAME UNDER the total.