2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 02, 2012
Cincinnati at San Diego
Sunday 12/02 04:25 PM Eastern
2 units on San Diego +1.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 46.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8) RESULT: loss
The Cincinnati Bengals may be the streakiest team in the NFL right now. After a season-opening loss, the Bengals went on a three-game winning streak, only to follow it with a four-game losing streak. They have now won three straight once again. Just when you think this team has lost it they find it again. When you think they have turned the corner, they stumble. That makes it hard to trust that they will continue to play at a high level. It all falls into Andy Dalton's lap. In the six wins he has had a passer rating of over 100 in five of them. In the five losses he has never been above 87. He has played three clean games in a row after throwing an interception in all of his first eight, so I wouldn't bet on another clean game here. This line has definitely been influenced by the last three weeks. Last week the Chargers were +1 at home vs. the 9-2 Ravens and they were -1 here vs. Denver. Now they are getting points vs. Cincinatti, a team that clearly isn't as good as Baltimore or Denver? We are getting line value based on recent outcomes. The Chargers will have to run the ball a lot here, as the Bengals’ secondary has been air-tight of late. But their Achilles heel for Cincy is ranking No. 24 against the run at 4.6 yards per carry. Teams coming off a home overtime loss are 77-47-7 ATS in the last 131 occurrences, including 8-1-1 ATS as a home dog. December is Norv Turner time as he is 15-6 ATS in December with the Chargers. The Bengals are 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 after scoring 30+ in their previous game. The Chargers may be thought of more for offense than defense, but they are 12-5 to the UNDER in their last 17 at home. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 14-3 UNDER afer a win by 14+ points. Take San Diego and play the UNDER.