2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 13, 2012

13

Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Thursday 12/13 08:25 PM Eastern

2 units on Cincinnati (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

The Cincinnati Bengals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last week when they allowed 10 points in the last few minutes at home to suffer a disappointing 1-point loss to the Cowboys. That game could have gone either way and if Cincy wins that, they'd be on a five-game winning streak and closer to a touchdown favorite here. This team is very much in the playoffs hunt whereas Philly's season is over. The Bengals have really turned the corner on defense. They have allowed 5.4 yards per play on the season, but over their last five games they have been a brick wall, allowing just 4.6 yards per play. They have held their last five opponents to 12.4 points per game. That's spells trouble for an Eagles offense that has averaged just 18.5 points per game. Philadelphia finally put one in the win column last week, snapping a disastrous eight game losing streak. But let's remember, this is a team that is going nowhere, and could be in for a letdown after finally getting the monkey off their back. The Bengals’ stop-unit has been superb, as no team has scored more than 20 points against them in their last five games. The same can't be said about the Eagles. Philadelphia has allowed eight straight teams to score 20 points or more against them. The Bengals are 7-1 straight-up in the Andy Dalton era vs. bad passing defenses like Philly's (teams allowing 7+ passing yards per attempt). Meanwhile, the Eagles are 1-6 this season vs. teams that can pass well (61%+ completion rate). And, under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 38-16 (70%) straight-up vs. bad teams (teams under .400). December home dogs are usually competitive, but the numbers simply don't add up to a straight-up win here as the difference in these two teams' talent is too large. Play Cincinnati on the moneyline.

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