2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 14, 2007

14

Cincinnati at Kansas City

Sunday 10/14 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Kansas City +3 (-120) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

Folks, this line is way off. This game should be close to a pick'em and we get 3 points on the home team. It's a gift we'll take. The Bengals are coming off a bye and it must have been a tough two weeks. This team is playing bad and is really in disarray. They have had two weeks to digest a pounding they took at home from New England and the realization of just how bad they might be. Deja Vu? Last year they were 3-0 and met New England before their bye and were crushed as well, 38-13. It sent a team that was 3-0 into a complete tailspin as they went out and lost coming off their bye to a Tampa Bay team that was 0-4. They went on to lose four of their next five games outright leading to a dissapointing season. This team has dropped their last five games after a bye if on the road. Overall they are 3-12 SU following an off week - the worst in the NFL. And they are just 6-11 SU in their last 17. The Bengals are a bruised up team, both physically and mentally. They have won just two of their last eight on the road, and now they are favored vs. a team that has the biggest home field advantage in the NFL. Kansas City simply wins the games at home they are suppose to win, and they relish in the role of an underdog in their building. This is a team that is now 39-10 ATS since '83 if they are a pick or a dog, and 34-15 SU! They don't just cover, they win! It goes beyond that. They are also 37-27 ATS as a favorite of -4 or less and 42-22 SU. Like we said, this team wins games at home it is supposed to win. Overall they are 76-37 ATS, as a favorite of -4 or less or an underdog and the same 76-37 SU. The Chiefs finally get a defense they can run on and score on. Since an opening day win against the Ravens, Cincinnati has lost three straight allowing 109 points in the process! The Bengals sit near the bottom of the league in defense and we expect Larry Johnson to control this game for the Chiefs. Brodie Croyle, if he has to go, is actually an upgrade to Huard. We are ready for a change at QB, but either way, they are going to stuff it right down the Bengals throats on the ground. The Chiefs have a very solid defense, and they are 5th against the pass. Palmer, without a running game, has been picked-off six times already. Both of these teams are off double-digit losses. Over the past decade, the Bengals are 7-19 ATS off a loss of 21+ points while KC is 32-15 ATS off a 10+ point loss.  The Bengals team and coaches are not getting along as everyone is upset and passing blame. A team in that emotional state, with a defense this bad, is not a team that you want to be laying points with on the road. We'll take the home dog here.


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