Cincinnati at Buffalo

Cincinnati may be winless but is playing fairly well. The offense is #11 in total yards, and second in passing with 343 yards per game behind QB Andy Dalton (four TDs, one pick). In their only road game, they rolled up 429 yards and 22 first downs at Seattle in a 21-20 loss as a +9.5 underdog. Dalton was outstanding with 418 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. The Bengals are 21-9-2 ATS in September, plus 8-3 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record. They are a dog to a run-oriented Buffalo squad that is rebuilding. The Bills are unbeaten but won just six games last season and have had a cupcake schedule, topping the Giants and Jets - the latter by one point. Young QB Josh Allen has two TDs, and two picks. The underdog has covered six of the last eight meetings between these teams and this shapes up as a close one, so back the dog with the superior quarterback. Play Cincinnati.