img HORSE

CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #7

May 17, 2020
img4:10 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Bet this race at Diamond SportsTop pick: #8 (FIERCE SCARLETT) (4-1) - This $320,000 daughter of 'Scat Daddy' has talent, but her career has been broken up by a pair of layoffs. When last in action Oct. 26 at Belmont Park, she rallied while wide to finish 4th of 12, beaten by two lengths when racing at this level going 8.5 furlongs. Training steadily at the Palm Meadows Center, she's from the barn of Chad Brown, 28% off of long layoffs, and he has Javier Castellano aboard. I give her a small edge.

2nd pick: #4 (Devious Charm) (6-1) - Improving stalker ships from Gulfstream where she missed by a 1/2-length going 8.5 furlongs at this level March 28. It earned her a career-best figure, and this $260,000 filly by 'Into Mischief' is a win candidate.

3rd pick: #6 (Lost Ticket) (9-2) - A lightly raced 3yo by 'More Than Ready,' this $400,000 purchase raced very wide when missing by four lengths at this level Feb. 29 at Gulfstream. It was her first off around a 100-day layoff, and she's been working fast at Payson Park for this attempt.

4th pick: #11 (Duchess of Sussex) (5-1) - Competitive in all four starts, and each have come at today's mile distance. $275K purchase broke her maiden Feb. 23 at Gulfstream, then had a rough trip when checking-in 4th March 29 at Tampa Bay Downs in her first facing winners. She has good early speed and should be involved from gate-to-wire.

5th pick: #1 (Edgee Angel) (20-1) - A 9.5-length maiden winner at this distance on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park March 14, it was her first back off a five-month layoff. She was competitive in two of three on the grass last year and has a ground-saving post here. Filly may hold down a share at a big price.

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