Chicago at Toronto

At first glance you have to ask yourself why Toronto is a -150 favorite here. Philip Humber has been very good for the White Sox while Brandon Morrow has been below average. But, the linesmakers don't make mistakes often. I really like the Blue Jays in this game. Toronto has a pretty distinct offensive advantage. They average 4.6 runs per game at home while Chicago gets 4.0 per game on the road. Chicago's offense really struggles in night games where they average only 3.6 per game. Meanwhile, Toronto is 18-10 in night games, getting 5.4 runs per game. Chicago seems to play down to their competition as they are just 7-14 vs. losing teams this year and 14-23 vs. AL teams averaging under 4.8 runs per game. The Blue Jays are coming off a bad loss but they are 24-14 since last season after a loss by 4+ runs. Finally, Morrow is 17-5 in his last 22 home starts. Take the Blue Jays in this one.