Chicago at Chicago

This looks like a pretty even matchup between a 35-36 team and a 36-38 team. Both pitchers have been very good. Zambrano has the name but I like Danks here. He's got a higher overall ERA, but at home he's been very good and over his last three starts he's put up a 2.53 ERA. The Cubs average just 3.9 runs per game on the road and the White Sox bats have been alive of late (6.3 runs per game over their last seven games). Coming off a close one-run loss, the Cubs are just 7-18 vs. the run line on the road the past two seasons. In games with low totals (under nine), the White Sox are 18-8 this year vs. the run line. Over the past two seasons, the Sox are 18-7 against the run line at home after a high scoring game (8+ runs). The Cubs have especially struggled this season vs. the run line when facing a good pitcher, going 4-14 against pitchers that average 5+ strikeouts per start. I like the value here on the White Sox -1.5 runs.