Chicago at Tampa Bay

This is a low total for an American League game and one team has an awful starter going. Chicago can score, ranked #14 in runs and #8 in slugging, but starter Hector Noesi (4.77 ERA) has not had a good season. He has walked 51 in 160 innings and has allowed more hits than innings pitched. His last three starts show 20 innings of work for 21 hits, 11 runs and 12 walks. The OVER is 9-1-1 in Noesi's last 11 starts with five days of rest. Tampa Bay hits best at home in a good home run park, and the OVER is 4-1-1 in the Rays' last six games against a right-handed starter. Starter Chris Archer is better on the road with a 4.32 ERA at home and the OVER is 5-1 in Archer's last six starts on astroturf. He also has an ERA of six against the White Sox this season. When these teams meet the OVER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings and this shapes up as an offensive show indoors. This one goes OVER the total.