2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 11, 2007
Chicago at Oakland
Sunday 11/11 04:15 PM Eastern
5 units on Oakland +3.5 RESULT: loss
This is a very different Bears team than we saw in the first half of last season. A team that was winning with defense, having held 9 of 12 teams under 20 points, has now allowed 20+ points in 8 of their last twelve 12. That defense which led the entire NFL over the first half of last season, is now ranked 27th! The running game is completely different (i.e. non-existent) without Thomas Jones as Cedric Benson is averaging just 3.1 ypc. And, Greise has shown a lot of the same qualities we saw from Grossman, namely too many bad decisions. The offense is averaging just 4.6ypp, ranking it better than only one NFL team (San Fransisco). Oakland certainly isn't an offensive power, but they stand on higher ground than the Bears at #22. The emergence of Justin Fargas at running back has given this offense an identity and a purpose - pound the rock. And defensively they are much better, especially against a team that can't run the ball. The Raiders have the #4 stop unit in the entire NFL against the pass and that could spell trouble for the mistake prone Bears offense. The Bears run defense is giving it up at over 4.5 yards per carry. Home underdogs playing a team that gives up 4.5+ ypc are 76-39 ATS 67%. We like Oakland, and think there is a good chance they get the outright win here against a team that has fallen hard and fast.