Chicago at Milwaukee

Milwaukee beat the Cubs 6-1 on Saturday as Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit two home runs, and the Brewers have an excellent chance of winning the rubber game of the series with Junior Guerra on the mound. The right-hander is 6-2 with a 3.06 ERA and has allowed just seven runs his last five starts in 27 innings with 33 strikeouts. In one appearance against Chicago this season, Guerra gave up three runs and five hits in seven innings. Jon Lester comes off a 5-1 win over the Mets, however, in his two previous games Lester was pummeled for 13 runs and 13 hits in just 4 1/3 innings, and he has a 10.50 ERA in July. The Cubs have lost seven of their last nine road games and eight of their last 11 against right-handed starters. Milwaukee has won 10 of Guerra's last 14 starts. Go with the home underdog and play the Brewers.