2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 01, 2012
Chicago at Dallas
Monday 10/01 08:35 PM Eastern
These are two teams that are hard to trust. Both Jay Cutler and Tony Romo can put up big numbers and lots of points. They can also struggle. Cutler threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns vs. Indianapolis in week one but followed that up with an awful game vs. the Packers (126 yards and four interceptions). Tony Romo has been more consistent but his offense has produced just 23 points the past two weeks. On the season, the Cowboys are averaging just 15.7 points per game. A cause for concern? Yes. But, favorites at .600 or better that average 18 or fewer points per game are 77-46-7 (63%) ATS since 1990. Chicago’s defense is playing well this season, allowing just 16.7 points per game so will Dallas be able to score? The Bears led the league in sacks coming into week fourteen with 14 and if they can get pressure on Romo, they can win this game. A big question mark for Chicago is the status of Matt Forte. Without Forte, Cutler could be in for a long night against a Cowboys defense that has held opponents to 18 points per game. The Cowboys have been an up-and-down team having gone just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win. And as a favorite, this team has been horrendous, going 4-17 ATS the past three seasons as chalk. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in expected close games (games with a line at -3 to +3). But, Jay Cutler can just as easily throw 3+ interceptions as he can throw for 300+ yards. Truth be told, neither of these teams can be counted on consistently. My computer matchup for this game predicts a small Dallas win. I think this is a good game on which to pass.