2015 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 07, 2016

07

Carolina vs. Denver

Sunday 02/07 06:30 PM Eastern

2.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT -110 (risk 2.5 to return 4.77)  RESULT: LOSS

Once again we look to take advantage of an oddsmakers error in a prop bet on which they have miscalculated the true odds. Which half of football games sees more scoring? So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead-heat with 22.23 points being scored on average in the first-half and 22.66 scored in the second-half of games (including overtime). But as usual, we need to dig deeper. In 49 prior Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.63 and 24.41. So we see that the second half average score is 13% higher. Excluding the 2012 Super Bowl in which the first-half points exactly matched the second-half points, the second-half has been the highest scoring half in 30 of 48 Super Bowls (62.5%). Fair odds on a 62.5% bet are -167. But, it gets even better. Lets look at how things have changed over the years. The discrepancy has become more pronounced in the past few decades as this game has gotten bigger and bigger. Over the last 25 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.53 and second half = 28.04. That's a 24.5% difference in points! In the last 17 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 13 times out of 16 years (81.3%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 four years ago in the first quarter. Without that, we might have seen the 14 out 16 years that the 2nd half has outscored the first half. So, -110 odds on this bet is an absolute gift!

NFL

2015-16 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
79 45 +35.46

NFL

 

Last 18.1 years

Wins Losses Units
2089 1792 +241.78

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