2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 28, 2012
Carolina at Chicago
Sunday 10/28 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Carolina PICK () (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: WIN
The Chicago Bears have been a big surprise in the NFC having raced off to a 5-1 start. They have a winnable game at home vs. the Carolina Panthers but will they really bring their best game here? The Bears’ defense has been the catalyst behind the 5-1 start, as they have allowed a stingy 34 points total in their last four games, or 8.5 points per game. They have been pounding opponents with their running game as they have gained 385 yards on the ground in their last two games. While that all looks sexy in the box score, it is a big negative in the counter-intuitive NFL. Teams that gain more than 150 yards rushing in two straight victories are now overpriced when playing to a line of -6.5 or more. These teams are in fact just 44-88 ATS in their next game. After rushing for 150+ in their last game, the Bears are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games. Cam Newton is taking a ton of heat for his post game presser this week as he should. He's petulant and aloof. The Panthers may not be winning more games with Cam Newton at QB, but they have made progress. The blowouts that were commonplace in 2010 have pretty much ceased. Excluding a meaningless week 17 of last year, Carolina has suffered just one double-digit loss in their last 10 games. Recently they have lost their last three games by a combined 11 points. Take the points and play on Carolina in this one.