Buffalo at Green Bay

Wow! Buffalo shocked the league with its 27-6 upset of the Minnesota Vikings last week as a huge dog. The defense had a chip on its shoulder after Vontae Davis bailed on them and the running attack gets a boost as RB LeSean McCoy has said he will play this week. The Bills have covered five of their last six games on natural grass and head to Lambeau Field. Struggling Green Bay has allowed 23, 29 and 31 points in three games. The defense ranks #23 in yards allowed and points, #27 against the run. The Packers are off a 31-17 defeat at Washington as a favorite and are 4-9 ATS when following a straight-up loss. NFL home favorites in non-conference games that come off an upset loss by 14+ points as chalk are 11-34 ATS the next game. They are also 43-22 OVER the total against teams averaging 17 points or fewer, plus 46-26 OVER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. Play Buffalo and the OVER.