2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 14, 2012
Buffalo at Arizona
Sunday 10/14 04:05 PM Eastern
4 units on Buffalo PICK () (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: WIN
Some of the bloom came off the rose last week as the Arizona Cardinals were beaten soundly by the St. Louis Rams. A lot of the chinks in the armor were revealed, as the Cards' offensive line was exposed badly. The inept offense that now ranks No. 31 in the league didn't make it into the end zone the entire game. Kolb has now been sacked 17 times in the last two games, so you know what the Bills’ game plan is going to be already. Naturally, the Cardinals want to exploit the Bills’ weakness, which is stopping the ground game. Buffalo has been torched for over 500 rushing yards over the last two weeks, but Arizona just doesn’t have the backs to get it done. Ryan Williams is gone for the year and Beanie Wells is on injured reserve, leaving LaRod Stephens-Howling, William Powell, or Alfonso Smith to do the damage. That's not very promising. I also expect Buffalo to come out with a lot of passion here, as they have suffered back-to-back losses of 21 or more points. Teams over the last 10 years having done so are 33-16 ATS. In their last 21 road games after allowing 35+ points, the Bills are 16-5 ATS. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games as a favorite in this range (+3.5 to +9.5). Grab the points and play on Buffalo as my NFL Game of the Month.