This pick was released to clients on October 16, 2012 at 6:27PM ET.
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Bucknell at Arkansas

March 17, 2006
img12:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
3 units on Bucknell +5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
WIN

It looks as though gamblers give little or no respect to Bucknell's basketball ability compared to all the other 9 seeds. I am positive Arkansas will not take them as lightly as most betters are. Bucknell was the first Patriot League team to ever be ranked in the top 25. They have plenty of experience as they returned the same 5 starters who upset Kansas in last year's tournament. This alone should get them respect, but hasn't. While this will be Pat Flannery's second visit to the big dance, it is the first time Stan Heath got Arkansas here. Arkansas likes to push the ball and get into high scoring games, they are not used to games that are left low scoring and that is exactly what they will see as they face the second ranked defense in the country from Bucknell who has allowed just 55.1ppg; Bucknell is also ranked fourth in scoring defense. Neither of these teams are wonderful from the free throw line and it can surely come down to such a situation in a close 8-9 seeded match up, but one place where there is a clear difference is in 3-point shooting. Not only is Arkansas worse from 3-point range, but they also struggle to defend shooters from that range. Arkansas tries to pressure the ball often and as long as Bucknell can avoid too many turnovers, this game will be entirely controlled by the Golden Eagles. I like Bucknell's chances of winning this game straight up, so the 5 points should offer a nice cushion. Three stars on Bucknell.

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