Boston at Toronto

Daisuke Matsuzaka has really struggled with health issues. He has lost his command and confidence, as he has become evasive in the strike zone. Despite lasting less than six innings on average in his last six starts, he has averaged 110 pitches per outing. He has worked 35.1 innings and his walk total is at 26. The Jays are getting 5 runs per game vs. right-handers, ranking third in baseball in units won when facing them. The Jays are 16-6 in their last 22 at home against a righthander, so I'll back Toronto in this one.