Boston at Toronto

Boston is an UNDER team but not as much on the road as at home. They can't defend, allowing 3.2 goals per game on the road (vs. closer to 2.0 at home). Toronto can take advantage of that as they average 3.2 goals per game at home (4.0 over their last five). They can't play defense either, allowing 3.7 per game at home on the year. Versus poor defensive teams, the Leafs are 9-2 OVER. They are 11-5 OVER on the season overall at home.