Boston at Texas

Red Sox righty Clay Buchholz has thrown better since getting some duty in short relief along with one start, allowing six hits and three runs his last 10 innings. He also has a 4.10 ERA in seven outings against Texas in his career, and the UNDER is 9-1-2 when Buchholz faces a team with a winning record. Texas has a strong bullpen and a reliable starter in Martin Perez (6-4, 3.57 ERA), allowing fewer hits than innings pitched. This is a tough park to throw in, but Perez has a 2.61 ERA at home this season. Texas is 51-24-4 UNDER the total in Sunday get-away games, plus 22-8-1 UNDER when Perez faces a team with a winning record. This total is high and note that the UNDER is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Texas. Play this one UNDER the total.