Boston at Minnesota

Boston scores 5.7 runs per game at home but just 4.5 per game on the road. Their pitching has really picked up as they are allowing just 3.7 runs per game over their last seven. Minnesota is 11-7 UNDER at home this season and they are averaging just 7.2 total runs per game at home. Against Tim Wakefield (3.33 ERA, 2.57 over his last three starts), we expect the Twins offense to again struggle. Nick Blackburn has been very solid posting a 3.65 ERA (1.66 at home). The Red Sox are 34-19 UNDER on the road against winning teams and 26-12 UNDER against teams that allow fewer than 4.8 runs per game over the last two seasons. With Wakefield on the mound they are 15-4 to the UNDER on the road the past two seasons. With Wakefield starting, the Sox are 19-5 UNDER on the road to a total of 8.5 to 10 over the past three seasons.