Boston at Orlando

The Celtics needed a big game after dropping the opener and they got it. They now have to head on the road, having lost the home-court advantage. As we predicted, they showed up big time after losing game one. The Celtics have shown a lot of heart, but they are also simply not the same team since Kevin Garnett has gone down. If you measure these teams based on Garnett's absence, the Magic would be the No. 2 seed, not Boston. So what it really boils down to is we now have the home team that is the better team at this point in time. The Magic remain undervalued. My Power Ratings indicate this is a very good team that can go deep into the playoffs. They have been very alive and profitable off a loss. Over their last 69 games, they are now 48-20-1 ATS after a loss, good for 70.6%. They are also very good off of a defensive lapse as they have gone 51-21-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more. That puts two huge indicators that add up to 99-41 ATS mark for Orlando here that have been money at 70.7% ATS. This team is also 24-15 ATS this season vs. winning opponents and 24-11 ATS vs. teams averaging 100+ ppg. They are 14-3 ATS the past two seasons revenging a loss in which they allowed 110+ points! I also like the UNDER here. The Magic have come back strong defensively after allowing 100+ points as they have played to an 18-9 under mark in their 27 games this season following a performance where they gave up the century mark. I look for them to come out in a defensive mode early, to impose their will on the game and frustrate the Celtics. Boston is 27-17 UNDER this season on the road while Orlando is 28-15 UNDER at home!  The Celctics are 26-12 UNDER in the first-half the past two seasons when instilled as an underdog. Orlando is 11-3 UNDER in the first half this season when revenging a loss. I will play Orlando and the first-half UNDER tonight.