2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 03, 2013
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday 02/03 06:30 PM Eastern
10 units on Extra Point Missed = NO -2000 (risk 10 to win 0.5) RESULT: win
Again, I know some people hate risking more than they can win. If thats you, then feel free to lay off this prop. But, for those of you who would be happen with a quick and easy 5% return on your money, knowing you will have the best of a bet with the sportsbooks, read on. These large moneyline bets are often the best available because of the attitude of bettors. Most bettors arent happy with a small return. They want a huge return. They want a 100% return on their investment, or a 200% return or a 500% return. Or even more. This is why most moneyline bets on the superbowl are on the best with the positive odds. People want to risk a little to win a lot. They want to win the lottery. The sportsbooks know this and as a result, they shift the odds off what they should be, to something that will attract more equal action. This bet is a prime example. The YES on this bet is set at +900. That means people can risk $100 to win $900. Bettors jump all over this because it would be a fun bet to win. But thats about the dumbest bet you could make because even if it hit, youd be getting paid a ton les than you should have, based on the true odds of this happening. On the flip side, they post the NO odds at -2000 which wont attract a ton of money, but it should. Those odds are tremendous for the bettor. Over the past 23 seasons (since 1990), there have been 359 missed extra points out of 23,684 attempted. That equates to a 1.52% chance of this happening. To get paid only 9-to-1 on this is ludicrous (it should pay 64 to 1). The fair odds on this not happening (which has a 98.5% chance of winning) is -6500. David Akers, the 49ers kicker, has hit 521 of 527 lifetime extra points (99%) while Baltimores Justin Tucker has never missed one (hes only had 42 attempts). The Super Bowl has seen missed extra points five times which makes the -6500 fair odsd a bit of a stretch. But, suffice it to say, -2000 provides great value. Take the NO on this bet. This line is available at Bovada.