2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 03, 2013
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday 02/03 06:30 PM Eastern
2 units on Fumbles Lost UNDER 1.5 -150 (risk 2 to win 1.3) RESULT: loss
In the 2012 season, there were 171 games out of 265 that resulted in less than two fumble recoveries by opposing teams. Thats 65%. In all playoff games since 1989, there have been 82 games out of 131 with fewer than two fumbles. Thats 64% so we see no real change in the playoffs. This season, games involving the Ravens had less than two fumbles 58% of the time (11 out of 19). And, this season 49ers games have had less than two fumbles 72% of the time (13 of 18). Together they averaged less than two fumbles 65% of the time which is right in line with the long-term history. So, all signs point towards a 65% chance of winning this bet. Fair odds on a bet with a 65% chance of winning are -185. So, at -150 we have value. Take a bet here that has nearly a two-thirds chance of winning, and pays better than it should. This line is available at Bovada (-165 to -170 elsewhere).