2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 03, 2013
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday 02/03 06:30 PM Eastern
5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -240 (risk 5 to win 2.1) RESULT: win
In 46 Super Bowls, there have been 14 scoreless quarters in 13 games. That equates to a scoreless quarter occurring 28.3% of the time (13/45). So, fair odds based on a 71% winner are -255. The oddsmakers are setting this line at -240 so theres not much value right? Wrong! You see, that's not the whole story. Things have changed dramatically and the oddsmakers haven't noticed! The early Super Bowls were more defensive than the current era. The first 20 Super Bowls averaged 41.9 points per game while the last 22 have averaged 49.4 per game. That's an 18% increase. And that, of course, reduces the chances of a scoreless quarter. So we would expect to see fewer of these occurring as time goes on, and that's exactly what we see. Seven of the first eleven Super Bowls (64%) had a scoreless quarter. That leaves only 6 games with a scoreless quarter in the last 35 Super Bowls (17.1%)! If we assume the modern era rate of 82.9% of games without a scoreless quarter, the fair odds on a NO bet are -485. So at -240 we are getting a tremendous overlay. Take the NO on this bet. This line is available at and Sporsbetting.ag (or you can get -260 at Sporsbetting.ag or -300 at Bovada or -325 at Diamond).