2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 03, 2013

03

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

Sunday 02/03 06:30 PM Eastern

5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +200 (risk 5 to win 10)  RESULT: loss

If all quarters were treated equal, then each would have a 25% chance of being the highest scoring and fair odds on this bet would be +300. But, not all quarters are created equal. This season, the average points scored for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively, was 9.4, 13.3, 9.7, and 13.1. So it would seem that the 2nd quarter would be the best bet for highest-scoring. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers know this. The odds for betting the 2nd quarter are just +160, providing very little if any value. But there is value on taking the 4th quarter because the oddsmakers are again not paying enough attention. The average points per quarter for first 46 Super Bowls are: 1st: 8.26, 2nd: 11.26, 3rd: 9.37, 4th: 13.24. Yes, the Super Bowl is different! In last 22 years it's gotten even more pronounced: 1st: 9.00, 2nd: 13.23, 3rd: 11.09, 4th: 16.27. The 4th quarter has been the highest-scoring quarter in 11 of the last 17 Super Bowls (65%). At 65%, the odds you should be laying are -185. But, instead, we are getting +200 here. In terms of value, this is about as good as it gets! This line is available at Bovada (or you can get +180 at Sporsbetting.ag).

NFL

2012-13 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
8 3 +4.30

NFL

 

Last 17.3 years

Wins Losses Units
1985 1715 +218.44

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