2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 03, 2013

03

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

Sunday 02/03 06:30 PM Eastern

3 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)  RESULT: win

Once again we look to take advantage of an oddsmakers error in a prop bet on which they have miscalculated. Which half of football games sees more scoring? So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead-heat with 22.7 points being scored on average in the first half and 23.0 scored in the second half of games. But we need to dig deeper. In 46 Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.37 and 24.02. So we see that the second half average score is 13% higher. Excluding last year which was a push, the second half has been the highest scoring half in 28 of 45 Super Bowls (62.2%). Fair odds on a 62.2% bet are -165. So at -110, we are looking at great value. But, it gets better. Lets look at how things have changed over the years. The discrepancy has become more pronounced. In the last 22 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.10, Second half = 27.83. That's a 26% difference in points! In the last 14 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 11 times out of 13 years (85%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 two years ago in the first quarter. Without that, we might have seen the 12 out 13 years that the 2nd half has outscored the first half. So, getting -110 odds on this bet provides a lot of value for a bet. This line is available at TopBet.

NFL

2012-13 Recent Results

Wins Losses Units
8 3 +4.30

NFL

 

Last 17.3 years

Wins Losses Units
1985 1715 +218.44

Get FREE NFL PICKS
with detailed analysis