2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 03, 2013
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday 02/03 06:30 PM Eastern
3 units on Baltimore 1Q +0.5 -130 (risk 3 to win 2.3) RESULT: win
The wrong team is favored on this bet. Yes, I know the 49ers are favored to win this game. So, its only logical that they are also favored in every quarter. In fact, the bookmakers pretty much have to do it that way their hands are tied. But, let me explain why I feel Baltimore is likely to outscore San Francisco in the first quarter. On the season, Baltimore was quite good in the first quarter, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points per game. For a team that reached the Super Bowl, this is expected. Heres where the surprise comes in. The 49ers were actually a bad team in the first-quarter this season. They were outscored by 0.7 points per game on average! Thats a full 1.5 point difference meaning that based on the full season numbers, Baltimore should actually be favored here, and by 1.5 points. But maybe things have changed? Maybe later in the season the Niners got better. Or maybe against top competition they perform better for some reason. Nope. In the playoffs this season, San Francisco was outscored in the first quarter 3.5 to 12 on average, sticking with the season-long theme. San Francisco scored more than 7 points in the first quarter this season just once. They scored a touchdown seven times, but they managed less than a touchdown in 11 games (61% of the time). In contrast, Baltimore scored under a touchdown 10 times and scored 7 or more points nine times. Take Baltimore in the first quarter. This line is available Diamond.