Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Baltimore has been a big dog all series, but is 1-1 the last two games, winning 3-2 as a +190 dog. Runs for the series: 8-6, Tampa Bay. That’s not surprising as Tampa is a weak offensive team, contending with pitching and defense. When these teams last met in June the Orioles outscored the Rays 18-16 in three games. For the season in four series the Rays have outscored Baltimore just 46-43. Baltimore has an under-the-radar starter going in Jeremy Guthrie, a poor record but good numbers all around, few walks and 183 hits in 177 innings pitched. He’s won two in a row and lost the previous two games by 1 run each time. In short, he keeps his team close and has been better on the road holding batters to a .250 average. Tampa Bay doesn’t give Jeremy Hellickson much support, losing two in row and he’s just 5-5 at home. The Rays are also 0-5 in Hellickson’s last five starts with four days of rest. I see Baltimore winning or keeping this real close, so play the Orioles on the runline.