2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 05, 2007

05

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Monday 11/05 08:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Game Total UNDER 36.5 -115 (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: LOSS

Pittsburgh has stubbed their toe a couple of times in surprising spots this season, losing to Arizona and Denver. We chalk those up to letdowns vs. weak foes. Outside of those two anomalies, they have performed as well as the NFL elite (New England, Indianapolis and Dallas). On defense, there is none better. They have held five of seven oppponents under 17 points and three two a TD or less, all while averaging 26.3 points per game. Overall the Steelers are ranked 8th in the league in scoring offense and #1 in the league in scoring defense. Baltimore has been a dissapointment, again. They seem to be stuck where they have been for a few seasons: Very good defense with no offense. While their defense has been good (#2 in the leauge in yards allowed), their offense has been horrible (ranked #25 in points scored at 17.7).  In four road games they have managed just 56 total points. That includes a 20-point performance against the Bengals who can't stop anyone. In their other three road games, Baltimore has scored 13 against Cleveland (one of the worst defenses in the league), 9 vs. San Francisco (a bottom 10 defense) and 14 against Buffalo (ranked 30th in the league in yards allowed per game). The bottom line is that Baltimore's bad offense, even with McNair back, will struggle mightily to find the endzone tonight vs. Pittsburgh's #1 defense. The Steel Curtain will be fired up on national TV and are probably shooting for a shutout. They will be determined to bring it to revenge a 31 point Baltimore performance the last time these two teams met in December of last year. We think Baltimore will be lucky to reach double-digits barring a special teams or defensive touchdown. Baltimore held this Steelers offense to 7 total points in two games last season so we don't think it's likely that Pittsburgh lights up the scoreboard tonight. Over the past fifteen years, the Ravens are 58-37 UNDER as an underdog including 43-23 UNDER as a road dog. They are 59-35 UNDER overall on the road and 19-8 UNDER the past three seasons vs. conference opponents and 22-10 UNDER on grass. We look for a low scoring game somewhere in the 24-9 range and we'll back the UNDER here.


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