Baltimore at New York

Mike Mussina has been anything but an ace this season. He has a 5.28 ERA and a losing record despite playing for a team that scores nearly six runs per game (RPG). In his last three starts he's 1-2 with an 11.32 ERA, lasting just 3.4 innings on average in those three starts. Opposing him is Jon Leicester who hasn't seen much action. But, he boasts a 3.37 ERA in his starts. So we get to fade a pitcher who has been poor and getting worse against one that is pitching well and we get over 2-to-1 odds. Right now bettors believe the Yankees can't lose, giving us tremendous value here. Baltimore is actually hotter offensively than the Yankees right now. The O's are averaging 5.1-rpg their last seven while New York is averaging 5.0. If there's any games Baltimore plays well in, it's division games. They average over one run more per game on offense against division foes and while they have a 64-85 overall record, they are .500 against division opponents. The Yankees have been horrible plays in division games this year, going 31-29 for a massive -16.6 units. That confirms what we know - there's great value with this line on Baltimore tonight. Should they Yankees win? Yes. Are they a good bet? No way. Take Baltimore at this massive line.