2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 21, 2012
Baltimore at Houston
Sunday 10/21 01:00 PM Eastern
3 units on Baltimore +7 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5) RESULT: loss
The Houston Texans were exposed big-time last week at home by a top level QB in Aaron Rodgers. The Texans were 5-0 and looking "Super" as in Super Bowl bound, but fell flat and hard. Their defense, considered one of the best in the league, fell apart with the surgical precision of Rodgers. Many were surprised by how easy he made it look, but there was a precursor to what happened. The Texans had only played against one top level QB and that was Peyton Manning who carved-up their secondary for 25 points, 330 yards, and two TDs. That means that the two top-level QBs have burned the Texans for eight touchdowns and 668 yards in two games for a total of 73 points! In fact, since last season when Houston's defense "turned the corner," the Texans are 0-6 ATS vs. great offensive teams (those like Baltimore that average 6+ yards per play). Enter Joe Flacco and his top 10 QB rating on the season, and a Ravens’ offense that has put up nearly 27 points per game and we are going to have a game here. Layered on top of that is the fact that the pundits have declared the "sky falling" on the Rvaens defense that just lost Ray Lewis. They are being told they can't be dominant without him. This is when teams seem to rise to the occasion and others pick-up the pieces. I expect to see that in this one. Teams with five wins that suffer their first loss tend to letdown, and are just 3-6 ATS as a favorite in their next game. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 13-4 ATS following an ATS loss. Baltimore shows up here. Take them with the points.