2012 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 12, 2013
Baltimore at Denver
Saturday 01/12 04:30 PM Eastern
I am passing on this game. I have a slight lean on Baltimore and if you can get them at +10, I'd argue there's probably value on that. But, I can't pull the trigger as Denver with Peyton Manning and this defense can certainly blow out anyone. The risk with Denver is that they have played an extremely weak schedule the last three quarters of the season. When they played quality teams like Atlanta, Houston and New England early in the season, they lost. They went just 2-3 straight-up and ATS vs. playoffs this year. But that was early before Manning started hitting his stride. Since he got going, this team has been a statistical beast and they end the season second in points scored and fourth in points allowed. Baltimore's numbers are good but not great. Their defense is certainly better with their big four all playing (Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and Ed Reed). This team was one dropped pass away from going to the Super Bowl last year and they have an emotional edge with the Ray Lewis situation so don't count them out just yet. My computer matchup for this game predicts a Broncos win but a Ravens cover. With a gun to my head, I take Baltimore plus the points in this one but in the end I'm passing as I can't bring myself to play against Denver right now.