Atlanta at New York

In game two of this doubleheader Kyle Davies faces Oliver Perez. Perez has been awful this year but has fared OK at home. Davies has also been terrible. Over his last three starts (two in May and one this month after returning fromt he DL), he's given up 25 hits and 16 runs in just 8.3 innings! The Braves struggle against lefties though. They score just 4.6 per game vs. southpaws vs. about 5.5 per game vs. righties. Backing up Perez if he gets in trouble is a very solid Mets bullpen with a 3.20 home ERA. And the Mets should definitely put up some runs here vs. Davies. New York scores 5.3 per game vs. right-handers and 5.9 per gaem in day games. New York is 16-2 this season vs. weak pitchers with ERAs over 5.70! Road teams at +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse on the season are just 16-60 (21%) over the past decade. And, home teams batting .255 to .269 facing a poor starting pitcher (ERA over 5.70) are 36-6 (86%) in September over the last 5 seasons. Mets in a shootout for the small price here.