Atlanta at Miami

The Atlanta Hawks split the two games with Miami in Atlanta, as the series moves to Miami for game three. The Hawks met with Miami four times during the regular season, and won three of the games including a 14-point win in Miami, so they certainly have to come into this one confident. The Heat did a great job at home this season. But when they faced teams with a better than .500 record, they struggled on their own court. They finished the regular season with a losing record, and eight of the home losses were by seven points or more, so they certainly are vulnerable here. The Heat’s home-favorite record has translated to 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53, so even though they are 28-13 at home on the season, they haven’t done a good job against the better teams. I'll go with Atlanta here.