Arkansas State at New Mexico State

The Red Wolves own one of the top scoring offenses in the country, putting up 41 points per game. Their average margin of victory is nearly three touchdowns per game. And, they have not played an entirely creampuff schedule. They have faced both SMU and Nebraska, covering the big number against the Cornhuskers in their opener. New Mexico State has also played above expectations this season, but I think they are simply out-matched here on offense. Under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves are 20-10 ATS as a favorite, 20-7 ATS in conference games, and 13-4 ATs vs. bad defensive teams like the Aggies (teams giving up 31+ points per game). Lay the points in this one.