Arkansas State at Florida International

The Golden Panthers have feasted on a lot of cupcakes early, and in spite of that, find themselves 3-8 vs. Div-1 competition coming into this game. Their biggest problem is turnovers as they have averaged over 15 a game against a soft schedule. They are also frequently losing points at the free throw line where they show their top four scorers all under 70% for the season. Arkansas State shows just a 1-8 ledger on the road, but they have played Mississippi, Memphis, Missouri State and Georgia on the road and are more than battle tested for the trip to Florida. Their track record in the Sun Belt is almost flawless at 17-4-2 ATS. The Golden Panthers are just 1-18 straight-up under Isiah Thomas as an underdog. This could be a close game, so I'm backing Arkansas State on the moneyline here.