This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 5:11PM ET.
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Arizona at St. Louis

November 20, 2005
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
2 units on Arizona +9.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
WIN

The first of my three Sunday dogs. This week is the first one all season that I feel like we are really getting value on multiple underdogs and this Arizona represents the best of the early games. We get an overrated huge favorite against a team that has played like crap. But, the team that has played like crap has a QB with a lot of extra "want" in this one. After floundering while he was out, the Cardinals now have Kurt Warner back under center. He threw for 359 yards last week against Detroit. They are likely to have Anquan Boldin back here as well. This Arizona offense is leaps and bounds better with those two playing vs. without. With Warner throwing to Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald, the Arizona offense has the potential to score, especially against the third worst defense in the league. And, do you think Kurt Warner wants this one? You bet! The Rams basically discarded him like a piece of used luggage. He wants nothing more than to go into St. Louis and play well as the starter. He played well in the first meeting with his old club back in week 2. He threw for 327 yards as the Cards lost by just 5 points. This one means more though, being in St. Louis. Warner had his best game as a Cardinal last week and should just now be getting comfortable with this offense. St. Louis is normally tough at home but they had the wind taken out of their sail last week in a blowout loss to Seattle. They are now 3 games back and know they have virtually no chance at winning their division. After that HUGE game, they will find it VERY hard to get up for this one. I expect the Rams to sleep walk through much of this game. The Cards have dropped four of their last five games and under Dennis Green, they have never lost a sixth of seven against the spread, going 6-0 in this situation. Arizona is bad but St. Louis is simply not 9.5 points better. When things are going as bad as can be for a team like Arizona, and you have a public favorite like St. Louis, and favorites have been hitting like clockwork, you have a prime chance for major value on the undervalued underdog.  Two stars on Arizona.

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