Arizona at Cleveland

This seems like a gimme for the Cardinals against the lowly Browns, right? The reality is that this is a tough situational spot for Arizona, playing its third road game in four weeks, part of a stretch playing four of five games away. After blowing out three teams to start the season the oddsmakers have taken notice and have overvalued this group, now on a 1-3 ATS run. That included a 24-22 loss to the Rams at home as -7 chalk and a 25-13 defeat at Pittsburgh as -6. Cleveland is playing its second home game in three weeks. They should have beaten the Broncos in their last home contest as a +6 dog. Rookie Duke Johnson Jr. is second among AFC running backs with 31 receptions after leading the club with seven last week. The Browns are 9-3-1 ATS following a loss, including 7-1 ATS after a spread loss. The Cleveland fan base will be up for this one with another winning team in town and Arizona is used to play at home indoors, while Cleveland will be cool and rainy Sunday. Cleveland is also 18-7-1 ATS after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. And, Arizona's strength is Carson Palmer and the passing game. But, Cleveland is a perfect 7-0 ATS since last season vs. good passing teams (those averaging 235+ yards per game through the air.  Grab the home dog.