Arizona at Atlanta

The Arizona Diamondbacks have pretty much sealed their fate and are now 10 games back in the Wild Card race in the NL and are running short on games. They have split the first two games of this series with Atlanta, a team that has been removed from the race for quite some time. It may appear that Arizona has the edge on the mound with Rubby De La Rosa, who is 10-5 on the season, however, he carries the baggage of a 4.55 ERA on the season. He has been the beneficiary of 6.14 runs per game in his starts, one of the top marks in baseball. Shelby Miller is just 5-9, but with a sterling 2.48 ERA. Miller has gotten the least support of any starter at 2.54 runs per game. There is a huge edge in this one on Atlanta as the line simply does not reflect the results here, and I'll run with that value on the home dog. Make the play on Atlanta.