We are nearing the midway point of the 2020 season and for my Week 9 NFL Trends feature, I’m starting with a look at some of the scoring stats through the past two months.
High scoring games were the norm in September, and in last week’s 41-21 win over Detroit, Indianapolis became the 12th team this season to crack the 40-point barrier. At an average of 1.5 per week, that puts 2020 on pace for 25.5 teams hitting the big 4-oh. And while it seemed like a more frequent occurrence earlier, 25.5 is actually well below the average from the past decade.
- From 2011-19, an average of 29.7 teams scored 40-plus points per season.
- The high-marks were in 2014 and 2018, when 36 and 37 teams scored 40-plus points, respectively.
Indianapolis (5-2) is hosting Baltimore (5-2) this Sunday, the Ravens coming off a narrow defeat against Pittsburgh. The current line favors Baltimore (-2), and the total is sitting at 47. Road favorites after a loss to the Steelers have played OVER at a rate of 67% the past 15 years, going 14-7 O/U.
From a contrarian standpoint, however, consider the following Week 9 trends:
- The UNDER is 18-8 (69%) for Indianapolis in the second half of the season the past three years.
- After committing zero turnovers, teams like Indy are 18-41 O/U against teams that turned the ball over 3-plus times last week, when the total is between 42 and 49 points.
Baltimore currently has eight players listed on their Covid-19 list, following interaction with Marlon Humphrey, who tested positive. Before booking any total on this game, be sure to check the practice reports and see which players will be active for Sunday.
Baltimore finished last week’s game against the Steelers with a season-high 265 rushing yards. Only 26 teams in the past decade have lost while surpassing 260 yards on the ground.
Week 9 TNF Tip Pool
Green Bay (5-2) was upended 28-22 by Minnesota last week, the Packers’ second loss in their past three outings. Aaron Rodgers responded to the first loss, a Week 6 blowout in Tampa, by passing for 283 yards and four touchdowns in a 35-20 win at Houston. Throw in the revenge factor from last year’s playoffs, and Rodgers has all the incentive he needs to make this game count.
San Francisco (4-4) was lit up in Seattle, and although they are still .500 on the year, the injury bug has taken its toll. Nick Mullens will start at quarterback in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle). TE George Kittle (foot), WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and RBs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, all out. Just last night, rookie sensation Brandon Aiyuk was added to the report after testing positive for Covid.
It has sent the ATS line on a ride but the total has fallen, and this 64% angle is live:
- The OVER is 56-31 when any two teams are coming off divisional losses, and the host team (49ers) played on the road last week.
The Packers are also banged up, and traveling on the short week is tough. Check my Week 9 NFL Picks for an update on this game, and a potential winning play.
Week 9 NFL Trends & Betting Tips: What’s Next?
Every week in the NFL, oddities will occur that help setup some great opportunities for bettors.
The Chargers have lost three games this season in which they lead by 17 points or more. Only the 2003 Falcons have had that happen three times in one year. In 2003, after Atlanta’s third brutal collapse, their record down the stretch was 3-2 SU/ATS with 1 OVER and 4 UNDERS. In the one OVER, Atlanta was a huge 8-point underdog, and the only game where the Chargers will expect a lopsided line is in Week 17, when they travel to Arrowhead.
- Los Angeles has played OVER four-straight games. Divisional home teams on such a streak have played UNDER at a rate of 65% the past 20 years (28-53 O/U).
- Six of the past seven between these two teams have finished UNDER the total.
The Steelers (7-0) matched their best start in franchise history with Sunday’s win over the Ravens. As expected, they are heavy favorites here and non-conference teams in this spot are 64% likely to cover. When the total is this low, however, there is a recent OVER trend that has hit 11 of 15 times. Also live on this game:
- Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 10-1-1 ATS after scoring more than 24 points in three consecutive games.
Just note, though, that only two of those 10 wins for Tomlin was by more than 13 points.