Football picksOctober 29, 2020

Week 8 NFL Trends and Betting Tips

My Week 8 NFL preview with has all the key trends and betting tips you need for Sunday’s big matchups.

The New York Jets (0-7) are like an accident scene, where everyone that passes by can’t help but look. New York’s points per game (12.1), yards per game (264), yards per play (4.3), third down conversions (29.8%) and red zone scoring (25%) all rank dead last in the league.

But they’re playing the Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) on Sunday, so we HAVE TO look! And here are another two things to consider:

  • Road dogs off a home dog loss where they covered are a 9-0 ATS run the past two seasons.
  • Beyond the first month, when this week’s underdog off the loss is still winless on the year, they are 19-5 ATS (79%), including a current run of eight consecutive covers dating back to 2008.

See? Whether you like it or not, you’re suddenly caught gazing towards the wreckage!

The Jets were infamously held to just four yards in the second half of last week’s loss to Buffalo. On the heels of a 24-0 loss the week prior, you can be excused if a couple of lopsided trends don’t have you rushing onto your favorite betting app for a play. Especially considering that Kansas City has averaged 32.5 points per game since Patrick Mahomes was handed the keys in 2018. This might be more your style:

  • In the past eight years, road teams off pitiful back-to-back showings have played OVER the total 22 of 28 games.

Kansas City and the J-E-T-S were live in this angle in 2017 and the game ended with 69 points.

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Week 8 NFL Trends and Betting Tips

Sam Darnold (shoulder) was sacked six times last week and he is listed as ‘doubtful’ for Week 8

Week 8 TNF Tip Pool

Atlanta at Carolina
Line: Panthers -2 and O/U 51

The Atlanta Falcons had won five games in a row against Carolina coming into 2020, but their motto this season is finding ways to lose. In Week 5, the Panthers defeated the Falcons 23-16 to end the streak, and now the books figure they could do it again. This line opened at -3 but has edged off on speculation that RB Christian McCaffrey may not return from Injured Reserve.

Carolina has lost two in a row since beating the Falcons but they opened the season with back-to-back losses, as well. The win in Week 3 improved the Cats to 5-1 ATS off two-straight losses and at this point, they are 1-2 against the division. They’ll host the Bucs in Week 10 and Saints in Week 17. It goes without saying that this win is critical in keeping their divisional hopes alive.

  • Atlanta averages 26.3 points per game. Carolina has played OVER 25 of the past 35 games vs. an explosive offense.

Each team in the above profile averaged 27 points per contest. In home games, the OVER was 8-2 since 2017 and against equal competition, the past 10 also went 8-2 OVER the total.

Get my premium selection on the Falcons vs. Panthers game right here.

Week 8 Trends and Betting Tips

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Line: Ravens -4 and O/U 46.5

Arguably the biggest matchup of the weekend, Pittsburgh and the UNDER are catching plenty of early action at the window. For the final game of my Week 8 NFL trends, I’ve broken down two coaching angles along with one Over/Under system that is 60% effective with more than 200 plays.

Pittsburgh is off a hard fought win in Tennessee and the Ravens are rested off a bye week. Coach John Harbaugh is 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS with extra prep, including playoffs. Mike Tomlin, however, has a 11-6 SU/ATS divisional record in the second of back-to-back road games. The Steelers’ vet has also stayed UNDER in this spot six of the past seven times.

  • In the past 30 years, the UNDER is 135-89 (60%) when the total is in this range and a strong road team (.750 or better) rolls in off an underdog win.

The Steelers and Ravens have had 13 of their past 24 meetings (54%) decided by three points or less. With two potent offenses and all the rules protecting quarterbacks and receivers, we could see a shootout on any given Sunday. But with these two powerhouses, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see this game come down to the final possession.

Visit my Matchups section for more Week 8 NFL trends and betting tips!