Football picksOctober 28, 2021

Week 8 NFL Betting Trends: Revenge for Miami?

Week 8 NFL betting trends for Miami at Buffalo, plus how do NFL road favorites do off a regular season bye week?

Week 8 NFL betting trends on two of sunday's big games

Zeke Elliot totaled 114 scrimmage yards with one touchdown in last year’s 31-28 win over the Minnesota Vikings  

Week 8 NFL Betting Trends

We’re moving into the meat of the NFL season. If you’re a vegetarian, just imagine a big, bountiful Beyond Beef smorgasbord. Either way, we have 15 matchups on the card and my Week 8 NFL betting trends are ready for action.

Six teams were off last week, the only time that’ll happen in 2021, and it gives us an opportunity to explore a couple of post-bye week systems. I’ll start with an assortment of Week 8 NFL betting trends for Dallas at Minny, a pair of teams that are both returning from a bye week.

Dallas (5-1) at Minnesota (3-3)
Line: Cowboys -1.5 and O/U 55

This contest was already covered in my Sunday Night Football preview, there is just a lot more I want to share with you. One of the angles I keep a close eye on each season is for road faves coming off a regular season bye week.

NFL road favorites off a regular season bye week are 105-73 (61%) since 1990

Regular season bye weeks as we know it have been in place since 1990. The NFL experimented with bye weeks in the past, often out of necessity, but with teams now playing a 17-game schedule, don’t expect the off weeks to be disappearing anytime soon.

As far as my Week 8 NFL betting trends go, this 61-percent angle with nearly 200 games is a strong foundation. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, who injured his calf late in Week 6, is limited in practice this week and that’s the only reason this line is hanging around so close to Pick em. Once Dak gets the go-ahead, you could see this line jump. Stay ahead of the Week 8 NFL betting trends with my Consensus tracker, that follows side and total betting patterns for every game.

  • Dallas is 10-0 straight up and 9-1 ATS as a road fave off a bye, winning eight of 10 games by double-digits.

When the Cowboys came off a bye in 2017, they were 6.5-point favorites in San Francisco. Dallas carried the ball 43 times for 265 rushing yards in a 40-10 win. They converted four of six red zone opportunities and the two big stars on offense were Dak (3 TD passes) and RB Zeke Elliot (147 rush yards, 2 TDs).

In 2019, Dallas returned from its Week 8 bye again laying -6.5, this time in New York. 172 rushing yards later, the final score was 38-18 Cowboys. Dak hit three TD passes, Zeke added 139 on the ground, and Amari Cooper (80 yards, 1 TD), was the leading receiver.

  • Minnesota is 11-4 ATS against Dallas the past 15 meetings (7-2 ATS at home).

The Boys won here last year, 31-28, and although Andy Dalton was in for an injured Dak, the game script was familiar. Dallas rushed 31 times for 180 yards, led by Zeke (103 rush yards).

Of Note: The Vikings currently rank 24th against the rush. They allow 126 RYPG (26th) and 4.8 yards per carry (29th).

Minnesota will need to win the battle of possession, and lean on its run game. RB Dalvin Cook was a star in their pre-bye win over Carolina, rushing for 140 yards and a TD, and RB Alexander Mattison and WR Adam Thielen each practiced in full Wednesday.

  • Minnesota is 21-9 ATS (70%) its past 30 games against teams that average more than 32 minutes of possession and 21 first downs per game.

Dallas leads the league in scoring (34.1 PPG) and yards (461 per game), and ranks fifth in third down conversions (46.7%). They average 32:02 time of possession and 27 first downs (1st). Early consensus data shows 63% on the over and like the spread, this total is going to move.

My Max Plays are 44-24 (65%, +$27K) since Sept. 11, with 1.5- and 2-unit picks combining for a 37-17 (69%) record. Get on board for these winning picks!


Top Week 8 NFL Betting Trends

Home favorites finally took a stand in Week 7, going 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Chalk bettors made back +2.45 units in the process, and it was the first winning week all season for home faves.

Four of the home faves leading the brigade were favorites of -7 points or more: Tampa Bay (-12), Arizona (-17.5), Green Bay (-8.5) and New England (-7)

Big home favorites this weekend include the Buffalo Bills (-13.5) and Kansas City (-9.5) on Monday Night Football. For my Week 8 NFL betting trends, I featured the Bills in their divisional matchup vs. Miami.

Miami at Buffalo
Line: Bills -13.5 and O/U

Home favorites in general might show a subpar record in 2021 but bigger faves are lining bettor’s pockets. After last week’s domination, TD-plus home faves are 21-2 straight up.

  • Big Chalk, Big Money: TD-plus home favorites in 2021 are 15-8 ATS (65%), covering the spread by an average of 7.0 points per game.

Buffalo has been in this spot twice already, winning by margins of 22 and 40 points.

  • Week 3, Buffalo (-7) beat Washington 43-21 (SU/ATS win)
  • Week 4, Buffalo (-16.5) beat Houston 40-0 (SU/ATS win)

The Bills took a long hiatus from games where they were laying heavy points at home, but under HC Sean McDermott they’ve returned with a vengeance!

  • Buffalo is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS laying -7 points or more at home since McDermott took over in 2017.

The Bills’ current straight up win streak stands at 12-straight when laying a TD or more at home, dating back to 2007. If you’re still alive in a suicide pool, the Bills are worth a serious look.

  • Buffalo is 34-23 ATS (60%) in the past 30 years when laying more than a TD at home.

One word of caution in regard to divisional games. Buffalo is only 14-12 ATS laying -7 or more against the AFC East. They have gone 3-1 ATS under McDermott, however.

Rested or Rusted: Another word of caution. Double-digit divisional home favorites off a bye week are just 8-19 ATS (30%) when hosting a division rival.

Miami has a bone to pick with Buffalo, stemming from that Week 2 embarrassment where the bitter Bills came south to Florida off an opening week loss. The Fish were filleted 35-0 and revenge is still a strong motivator in today’s NFL.

  • Divisional road dogs of any number are 14-6 ATS (70%) when seeking same-season revenge for a shutout loss.

There are strong trends suggesting the UNDER might be worth a look in this game as well. Always be sure to check the weather on these cold weather games as we get set to flip into November.

Hit me up on social media for more Week 8 NFL betting trends, including a couple gems I’m holding onto for the New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs!