My Week 7 NFL preview has the key trends, and betting tips you need to get your head in the game for Sunday’s big matchups.
Week 7 TNF Tip Pool
New York Giants at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles -4 and O/U 44.5
The New York Giants (1-5 SU) are coming off their first win. Philadelphia is only a half-game better at 1-4-1 SU, but these Eagles have won seven-straight games against the G-Men. The streak began on a Thursday night home game in 2016, and that 24-19 final is almost like a template for tonight’s spread.
Coach Doug Pederson has also won five in a row against the NFC East. Bragging about wins in this sorry division, however, won’t get you much love in Hall of Fame balloting.
- The Eagles margin of victory in their past five divisional games was 3-15-5-6-8 points. The Eagles did not allow a single third-quarter point in any of those five wins.
New York is averaging 27:42 time of possession, 88 rushing yards and 188 passing yards per game. They are scoring 16.8 points per game and the record for Thursday divisional games with a total in the low 40’s is 22 overs and 11 unders (67% OVER).
Philadelphia’s point tally increased through each of their first five weeks. It edged back a single point in the 30-28 loss to Baltimore, for a current average of 23.5. The Eagles also allow 29.2 points per contest and New York’s road record since 2000 vs. weaker defenses is 17-3 ATS.
New York barely won a sloppy game last Sunday, 20-19. Now on a short week, they travel as divisional road dogs against another underachieving NFC East squad. The history for dogs like this isn’t great. Get my premium selection on the Giants vs. Eagles game here.
Week 7 NFL Preview
Dallas at Washington
Line: Pick em and O/U 46
The ’T’ in Texas may just as well stand for turnovers, as far as the Cowboys are concerned. Dallas has averaged a ridiculously high 2.5 giveaways while stumbling to their 2-4 SU start, including four during the loss to Arizona.
- Any divisional road team the past five years that turned the ball over 3-plus times last week, has a 29-47 ATS (38%) record.
- If the line is within +/- 3 points of Pick em, that win percentage sinks to 24% ATS (5-16).
Mike McCarthy has a career record of 48-30 ATS (62%) when facing a division rival, but it seems like his biggest challenge right now is keeping the locker room together.
At home off a road loss, coach Ron Rivera posted 15 overs and 7 unders with Carolina. And in his first chance with Washington, he kept the trend alive with a Week 4 OVER against Baltimore. The forecast is calling for seasonal weather, light winds and only 10% chance of rain. With so little to lose, could this be the darkhorse shootout of the Week 7 schedule?
Carolina at New Orleans
Line: Saints -7 and O/U 51
The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers, played to overtime in a primetime game prior to their bye week. Analytics junkies read that sentence and think, OMG, I’m about to crack the most unique trend set of all-time! But let me save you the trip, there is nothing that playing into overtime before a bye week does to impact this week’s matchup. You want an example?
- Faves off a bye that won prior to their break are 55% ATS. Meanwhile, faves that did so in overtime, are 54% ATS.
There is one trend worth nothing, though. It applies to the Saints, and it’s only 5-0 ATS but the margin of victory for those five favorites was more than 20 points per game. We are looking at home faves on turf that won in overtime before their bye week. New Orleans was “live” in this angle once in 2011, and they polished off the Giants 49-24.
Carolina ranks 3rd in the NFL with 32:14 average minutes of possession. The Panthers are 11th in first downs with 22.8 per game.
- Sean Payton’s record against high possession teams that can move the chains is 24-9 ATS (73%).
Before Thanksgiving, Payton’s home record in this spot with at least five days prep time is 10-1 ATS. And the last I heard, WR Michael Thomas (ankle) is on pace to dress for this one.