Football picksOctober 15, 2020

Week 6 NFL Trends and Betting Tips

When sorting through the list of Week 6 NFL trends, there is a definite theme. Scoring was up in a handful of last week’s games, and it triggered a few high-percentage angles worth sharing.

The Week 6 NFL schedule is serving up a healthy portion of divisional matchups, revenge games, and even some coaching scenarios worth keeping an eye on. We’ll get a chance to see how the Chiefs respond to a loss, how Buffalo works off a short week, and what the Rams can do against some actual competition.

So let’s not waste anymore of your time. Here is my list of Week 6 NFL trends, tips and news you can use.

Week 6 NFL trends including the Texans at Titans and Chiefs at Bills

The Titans are just the 11th team since realignment to convert six of six red zone opportunities

Week 6 NFL Trends: 40 Burgers

As both a coach and analyst, Steve Mariucci has had some great quotes over the years. The one that really stirs my appetite on a Sunday afternoon is when he talks about ’40 Burgers’, and in Week 5 there were enough to feed the whole family.

Here are some scenarios involving games from last week where at least one team scored 40 points. And like any grill master will tell you — with 40 Burgers, it’s better to give than to receive.

New York Jets at Miami
Line: Dolphins -9.5 and O/U 47

The Dolphins (2-3 SU) won only five games in 2019 but three of them were in December. During those wins, Miami scored 37, 38 and 27 points, an average of 34 per game. This season they started with back-to-back divisional matchups vs. the Patriots and Bills, and nobody was shocked when they fell to 0-2. Miami also lost to Seattle in Week 4, but against the Jaguars (1-4 SU) and Niners (2-3 SU), these Fish have looked like Pro Bowlers.

Indeed, the Jets (0-5 SU) are a divisional foe but that’s where the similarities end. Even comparing them to the Jaguars is flattering. And here is the first of our Week 6 NFL trends worth noting:

  • After scoring 40-plus points, the OVER is 10-3 (77%) for a divisional favorite that’s facing a winless team.

Visit my Matchups section for more Week 6 NFL trends and betting tips!

Fire up the Grill

Houston at Tennessee
Line: Texans -3 and O/U 53

Tennessee (4-0 SU) put on a show Tuesday night, going 6-for-6 in the red zone during a 42-16 win over the Bills. The Texans (1-4 SU) have scored more points in four consecutive games (16-21-23-30), and finally earned a win Sunday over the beleaguered Jaguars. Interim coach Romeo Crennel has a career .345 win percentage (29-55 SU), and he has been in charge of some horrible offenses. So would the real Houston Texans please stand-up?

Divisional road dogs have been outscored 26-17 when facing a team that scored 40-plus points the previous week. When their coach has a losing record, divisional dogs reduce that margin to just 3.0 points (22.4-19.4). But here’s one from the Week 6 NFL trends that really stands out:

  • The OVER is 22-8 (73%) the past 30 times a team with a winning record was coming off a home dog win.

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Primetime NFL Trends, Week 6

The Raiders are off this week following their huge upset win over Kansas City. Of the remaining 40-burger units, all three are playing under the lights in Week 6.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco
Line: Rams -3.5 and O/U 51.5

The Rams (4-1 SU) have padded their stats against all four NFC East teams to start the season, averaging 27.2 points.

  • When a potent offense meets a divisional foe that just allowed 40-plus points, the UNDER is 17-6 (74%).

Kansas City at Buffalo
Line: Chiefs -3.5 and O/U 57.5

The Chiefs (4-1 SU) saw their 13-game winning streak come to an end on Sunday, but oddsmakers still had no choice but to make them a road favorite at the Ralph. Buffalo (4-1 SU) didn’t help their cause, getting lit on Tuesday, but coach Sean McDermott’s recent record as an underdog is a healthy 9-3-1 ATS. I should also note that the UNDER in those 13 games is 10-3 (77%).

Any road fave that saw their win streak unceremoniously ended at home by allowing 40-plus points, has a 1-6 ATS record. Countering that, however, is coach Andy Reid’s 21-10-2 ATS (68%) record on Monday Night Football. Included with that nugget is Reid’s 6-1-2 ATS (86%) MNF record with the Chiefs.

The forecast for Buffalo is cloudy, light winds, with temperatures in the 60’s. In other words, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for this total to drop.

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