Today in my Week 6 NFL betting trends, I’m looking at the Dallas Cowboys vs. New England, KC and Washington, plus the Vikings’ trip into Carolina.
Taylor Heinicke is holding down the fort while Ryan Fitzpatrick recovers from a hip injury sustained in Week 1
Road Chalk ‘Trending’ in Week 6 NFL Betting
In this space last week I talked about NFL Betting Trends for Road Favorites, and at the time the Saints, Titans, Packers and Patriots were all laying points on the road Sunday.
- Saints (-2.5) = SU/ATS winner
- Titans (-4.5) = SU/ATS winner
- Packers (-3) = SU winners; Push ATS
- Patriots (-8) = SU winners (barely); ATS loss
*Shameless plug, but I called the Houston Texans as my Week 5 NFL Max Play and with the win, my NFL Max Plays improved to 3-2 (60%) on the year. All-time, they have led to a bankroll gain of +$157,910, hitting +160 games over .500.
The Rams also won on Thursday Night Football, laying -2.5 in Seattle, so the record for NFL road favorites in 2021 is up to 20-10 (67%) straight up. Against the spread, however, road chalk are hitting just 50% at 15-15, which is no big deal, right? Oddsmakers are just doing their job.
Tell me then friend, how on the Week 6 NFL card there are no less than eight out of a possible 13 (62%) road teams laying points?!? It’s like a Week 17 lineup where some local beat writer from each town leaked info that none of the home starters were playing past the first quarter!
Besides the Bucs (TNF) and Bills (MNF), there are six more road teams laying points on the road for Sunday. Of those six, here are some Week 6 NFL betting trends you need to know from KC at Washington.
Kansas City at Washington
Line: Chiefs -6.5 and O/U 55.5
The Chiefs have covered five-straight against The Team, and QB Taylor Heinicke has some major shortages to deal with right now at WR and tight end. But (and there’s always a but), Kansas City’s defense ranks 31st against the pass and 32nd against the rush.
- Kansas City is 7-23 ATS (23%) after gaining 375+ total yards in back-to-back-to-back games.
KC has gained more than 390 total yards in all five games this year. Their record: 1-4 ATS. Patrick Mahomes is also just 8-14 ATS (36%) laying points anywhere since the start of last season.
A win is critical for each of these sub-500 teams right now and my NFL consensus data shows 73% action on the Chiefs. Washington HC Ron Rivera said that to get the fans back, ‘We have to win,’ and taking down this superpower would go a long way for this ailing fan base. Washington accumulated 373 total yards against the Saints and went OVER for the fourth straight game. It will have to lean on their D to stop Mahomes, and one trend pointing in their direction is a 8-1 ATS record their past nine games after gaining more than 350 yards on offense.
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Top Week 6 NFL Betting Trends
Minnesota (2-3) and Dallas (4-1 SU) are back on the highway this week after playing three consecutive home games. It’s one of those scheduling quirks that can help some teams and hinder others, but these two went a combined 5-1 SU from Week’s 3-5, so neither is complaining. The question now is whether these teams will be able to regain the edge necessary to go into another team’s territory and compete.
Teams that travel immediately after an extended home stand of three-plus games are 62% likely to play UNDER the total
Minnesota at Carolina
Line: Vikings -1 and O/U 46
The Vikings pulled off a miracle win at the hands of poor Detroit. They held the Lions to 203 passing yards and held onto the football for 32:06 minutes. Bettors are pulling this line towards the Vikings but I’ll note that Minnesota is 0-7 ATS their past seven games as the favorite.
- Road teams that held their past two opponents to fewer than 5.5 passing yards per attempt are 75% likely to play UNDER the total, going 56-19 UNDER the past five seasons.
- When the total is in this range, the record improves to 81% (29-7 UNDER).
Carolina is on a 7-1 UNDER run that dates back to December. The O-Line has taken a few hits this season and RB Christian McCaffrey (check status) was limited at practice Wednesday. HC Matt Rhule said his star running back has a 50-percent shot at playing Sunday. QB Sam Darnold could use all the help he can get. Darnold threw three picks last week and is 18-10 UNDER his past 28 starts with a total in the mid-40’s.
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Dallas at New England
Line: Cowboys -4 and O/U 51.5
This line opened 48.5 and started to move on Monday. CB Trevon Diggs, who extended his interception streak to five-straight games (6 picks) in Sunday’s win over the Giants, was held out of practice Wednesday with an ankle injury.
- Dallas HC Mike McCarthy is 53-29 ATS (65%) all-time when laying between -3.5 and -9.5 points.
New England returns from a scare in Houston but they got the win to improve to 2-3 SU. They’ve leaned on the defense in classic Belichickian fashion, but rookie QB Mac Jones has shown progress. He’ll need to improve upon his team’s 26th ranked, 320-total-yards average to keep pace with Dak’s offense, but we caught a glimpse of what the future might hold two weeks ago in the Sunday nighter against Tampa Bay. Jones threw for 275 yards in the 19-17 loss, completing 31 of 40 passes.
- Belichick is 25-8 ATS (76%) at home with a posted total greater than 49 points.
- Road favorites that are outscoring their opponents by an average of more than 10 points per game (Dallas) have a 18-45 ATS (29%) record following a double-digit win.
Dallas (4-1) destroyed the Giants 44-20 last week and now ranks second in both points (34.0) and yards (439.6) per game. They have crept into Top 5 discussions amongst NFL power rankings, and Pro Football Focus ranks Dallas’ O-Line as the best in the business, even with starting RT La’el Collins out since Week 2 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. McCarthy is no stranger to laying road points from his time in Green Bay, and he has an impressive 15-6 ATS (71%) record when laying between -3.5 and -7 points away from home. Dallas also has a bye week up next, so they should be squarely focused on the task at hand. The Week 6 NFL betting trends for this game do show some conflicting data.