My Week 5 NFL betting trends are highlighted by four road favorites as the Saints roll into Washington, Tennessee takes on Jacksonville, and the Packers and Pats look for wins against the Bengals and Texans.
Derrick Henry has carried 68 times with four rushing TDs in two road games this season
Week 5 NFL Betting Trends for Road Favorites
One of the hot button topics for NFL bettors through the past month was home field advantage. Home teams are just 31-33 straight up through Week 4, covering the spread at a paltry 44 percent (28-36). Has the oddsmaker gone too far? Were fans in the stands being overrated?
One theory went as far as to suggest that the nationwide increase in legalized sports betting was behind this trend. After all, online sportsbooks are looking for balanced action. If novice sports bettors were flooding the windows with heavy money to back the home fave lock of the week, bookies would have no choice but to raise the price.
Here’s another theory: Four weeks, or 64 games, is a very small sample size to start coming up with random ideas of why home teams have been underperforming. There’s an incredibly high likelihood that by the end of the season, home teams will have a straight up record around 55 percent, and be covering at a rate just south of 50 percent. It’s been that way for the past 20 years and the law of large numbers suggests that a trend based on 5,000 games is more reliable than one based on less than 100 games.
NFL favorites through the first month are 26-38 ATS (41%)
If favorites through the first month are slow out of the gate, does the law of averages suggest they’re about to turn a corner? In my Week 5 NFL betting trends, I circled four road favorites from Sunday’s games and highlighted some scenarios that are live. If you’re thinking of playing the Saints, Titans, Packers or Patriots, check out some of the Week 5 NFL betting trends below.
My CFB picks are steamrolling the competition this year, with four of five winning weeks (80%) and a bankroll return of +$16,910. I have eight Max Plays lined for Saturday, including my Game of the Month.
Top Week 5 NFL Betting Trends
The Saints, Titans, Packers and Patriots are laying points on the road Sunday. Of these four, the Packers possess the best betting record as road chalk, going 26-21 ATS (55%) over the past 10 years. The Titans are historically one of the worst teams when laying points on the road, going 9-16 ATS (36%).
New Orleans at Washington
Line: Saints -2 and O/U 44
This line has already moved from Saints -1 up to -2, based on 58% action according to my NFL consensus data. The Saints are coming off an overtime home loss to the Giants and currently rank 31st in the NFL with just 144 passing yards per game. Read that last sentence out loud.
- 10 of the past 12 games between these two have gone OVER the total.
- After back-to-back-back high scoring games, underdogs like Washington are just 10-40 ATS (20%) the past five years.
Washington is home for the first of back-to-back games with KC on-deck. They will try and dig in their heels here and really fight for a win, and Saints QB Jameis Winston is the kind of quarterback that can help a D get right in a hurry.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Line: Titans -4.5 and O/U 48.5
Jacksonville is home off a TNF loss in Cinci where they looked pretty good for a team that’s lost 19-straight. Urban Meyer skipped the flight home, trying to prove like a real leader WHAT NOT TO DO after a road loss. They are in London next week and if the Jags think jet lag is rough, wait until they get a load of what 30 carries from Derrick Henry feels like.
Fantasy Football Watch: Henry leads all NFL running backs with a projection of 23.3 expected fantasy points in Week 5.
Jacksonville’s defense is currently tied for last in the league for takeaways, forcing 0.2 per game.
- The Titans are 33-17 OVER (66%) against teams that force fewer than 1.0 turnovers per game.
Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 5 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!
Quick Hits: Week 5 NFL Betting Trends
Green Bay at Cincinnati
Line: Packers -3 and O/U 51
The total on this game has already moved from 49.5 up to 51 points. The weather forecast is good but check the status of Bengals RB Joe Mixon (ankle). Mixon didn’t practice Wednesday and HC Zac Taylor said he’s day-to-day. WR Tee Higgins (shoulder) was a limited participant Wednesday and could return. The Bengals need all hands on-deck.
- Home teams off a straight up fave win where they failed to cover are 32-7 OVER (82%) when facing opponents off a home win.
New England at Houston
Line: Patriots -9 and O/U 39.5
The QB news out of Houston is still swirling on trade rumors of Deshaun Watson. Nobody wants to talk about rookie Davis Mills, who is now 0-2 as a starter, but Bill Belichick is surely looking forward to meeting him.
- Belichick’s record against rookie QBs is 22-6 straight up (9-6 SU on the road).
The thing about Belichick’s impressive bully streak is that most of those wins were with Tom Brady. Right now, Mac Jones is running the offense and laying more than a touchdown on the road is a lot to ask of a rookie.
- The home team has won 10 of the past 13 games ATS in this series.
- Belichick is just 37% ATS the past 10 years against teams that average less than 1.0 offensive point per first down.
- Dogs that are being outscored by more than 10 points per game on average have a 86-44 ATS (66%) record immediately after allowing 40-plus points.
The Texans currently rank 31st in the NFL with a -12.2 PPG margin. The only team that’s worse is Atlanta (-12.5).