My Week 17 NFL Picks from the Pound looks at the NFC playoff scenario, and how Seattle can make a play on the top seed with a win and some help. I also have a free pick this week from the Raiders and Broncos. Get a preview and find out how you can get free picks for every sport that I cover, weekly.
A Tale of Two Seasons
The Seattle Seahawks offense was a model of consistency during the first half of the season. They started 5-0 and scored a minimum of 27 points in each of their first eight, averaging 34.2 points per game (PPG). The defense was also giving up a lot of points (30.4 PPG), but QB Russell Wilson was cooking. Their only two losses were in Buffalo (Week 9), and that wild Sunday nighter in Arizona that went to overtime.
During the second half, itâ€™s the Seattle defenders that have anchored the ship. The Legion of Boom, part two, has allowed an NFL-low 15 PPG since Week 10 and theyâ€™ve stayed UNDER the total seven consecutive times.
- The Seahawks are one of seven teams with a winning record that has held opponents to less than 20 PPG in the second half of the season.
- Seahawks: 15.0
- Dolphins: 17.3
- Steelers: 18.1
- Saints: 18.6
- Bears: 19.0
- Bills: 19.3
- Rams: 19.6
On Sunday, the Seahawks face the 49ers at State Farm Stadium in Glendale. San Francisco is playing out the string but with a win, Seattle still has a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC. It would take Green Bay and New Orleans losing, but all three of these games kickoff at 4:25 pm Eastern. Itâ€™s going to make for a great afternoon of football!
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Seahawks wideout D.K. Metcalf averages 16 yards per reception and needs just five yards to move past Steve Largent for ‘most receiving yards’ by a Seahawks in a single season
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, Jan. 3 at 4:25 PM Eastern
Odds: Seahawks -7 and O/U 46
The 49ers have lost more games this year than any other team, and it isnâ€™t close. Through Week 16, the Niners have just over 300 man-games in 2020 and Philadelphia, the next-highest, is only at 245.
- The Top 5 teams for man-games lost this season are the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Chargers and Vikings.
San Francisco has already played in this stadium three times this season, going 1-2 SU/ATS. Their 20-12 win over Arizona last Saturday is just their second regular season win at this venue in nine trips since 2014.
- Since 2014, the Niners have been outscored 25-18 at this field, going 3-6 ATS with 3 OVERS and 6 UNDERS.
Seattle has enjoyed a great deal of success in the desert, posting a 6-1-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS record in eight trips since 2013. They have outscored the Cardinals 27-15 in those games and while itâ€™s true that Arizona had a couple of sad lineups over those years, this current edition of the Niners isnâ€™t exactly studded with Pro Bowlers either. Arizona also hit double-digit wins in three consecutive seasons from 2013-15, so the averages are relative.
- On a weekâ€™s rest, divisional teams off a road dog win (49ers) are 104-68 UNDER (60%) when the posted total is between 42-49 points.
Team totals on this game are 26.5 (Seahawks) and 20.5. For more on this contest, visit my NFL Matchups page.
Don’t miss my latest article looking atÂ Week 17 NFL Betting Trends!
Free Week 17 NFL Picks
I offer free picks in pro and college sports every week at Wunderdog, sent right to your inbox. My all-time record for free NFL picks is 184-121 (60%) for a profit of +$72,880. In my Week 17 NFL picks this week, I have a free play from the AFC West.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, Jan. 3 at 4:25 PM Eastern
Denver +3 (-114) at Bookmaker
Las Vegas found an unbelievable way to lose last week and the Raiders will have no interest in this game, especially on the road and with the #24 defense in the league. The Raiders are dealing with several injuries in the secondary and that is one of the reasons Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to complete a 34-yard pass to Mack Hollins while getting a face-mask penalty in the final seconds when the Dolphins beat Las Vegas 26-25 on a 44-yard field goal by Jason Sanders.
The Broncos lost 37-12 to these Raiders in Week 10, activating this system with an 85% record against the spread:
- Play ON a home team immediately following a close divisional loss, if they are trying to avenge a blowout loss where the opponent scored 35-plus points. The home team in this scenario is 22-4 ATS.
To read the rest of this writeup, sign up for my free Week 17 NFL picks today. I also offer free plays in the NBA and College hoops, and this season alone my CBB free plays are 16-10 ATS (62%). Dime bettors have banked +$4,130 off these plays, and you can too.