Today in my Week 17 NFL betting trends feature, I’m looking at a couple of late-season systems that are live on several teams. Plus, I breakdown the Dolphins at Bills matchup, as Miami looks to punch its ticket to the postseason.
Week 17 of the NFL season signals the end for some teams and a new beginning for those that are playoff bound. The great mystery that faces bettors as we prepare for a huge, 16-game lineup, is figuring out which players and coaches will be the most motivated for a win.
- The Saints, Bills, Packers, Bucs, Seahawks, Chiefs and Steelers have locked up a playoff spot.
Washington controls its own destiny, and they’ll face Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football. The fan base of either the New York football Giants or Dallas Cowboys will become Eagles for three hours that night, praying for an upset. And with Jalen Hurts under center for the home side, we can all certainly expect a 100% effort from Philly.
- The record for sub-500 divisional home teams in Week 17, when the line is within +/- 3 points of Pick em, is 46-30 ATS (61%).
Based on current lines, the above profile applies to the Eagles, Broncos, Giants and Patriots this weekend.
Road Dog Rules
Countering that angle, here is one that applies to two teams this weekend with a 65% win rate against the number.
- Play ON divisional road dogs with three covers in the past four weeks.
This late-season system is 32-17 ATS in recent years and both the Jets and Dolphins qualify. New York has covers against the Raiders, Rams and Browns since Week 13. Meanwhile, Miami has raked in the cash against Cincinnati, Kansas City and New England.
Read on for more of my Week 17 NFL betting trends, including a closer look at the Dolphins vs. Bills matchup!
Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin racked up 169 all-purpose yards in a dramatic Week 16 win over the Raiders
Week 17 NFL Betting Trends
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, Jan. 3 at 1 PM Eastern
Odds: Bills -3 and O/U 47.5
The Dolphins are a poster team for platooning this season. Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Fitzpatrick split the quarterbacking duties. Myles Gaskin has taken over the lead running back role for now, but Salvon Ahmed filled the role in four starts. With both backs finally healthy, the Dolphins quietly have a nice one-two punch at their disposal. DeVante Parker (hamstring) and TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder) lead the team in receiving. Each is dealing with current injuries, but if there was ever a time to play through the pain, this is it.
- Miami has a 15-29 ATS (34%) road record from Week 15 out, since 1989.
Included in that trend is a 3-11 ATS record since 2012 when playing away from Miami in December-January. But as we all know, the culture in Miami changed with coach Brian Flores took over.
Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 17 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!
Buffalo has won five games in a row straight up and they are 7-0 ATS since Week 9. The greater motivation, however, clearly sides with the Fish.
- The Bills record after four-plus wins since 1992 is 5-15 ATS and 14-6 OVER (70%).
Pittsburgh (12-3) and Buffalo (12-3) share identical records. The Bills will win a tiebreaker, based on their win over the Steelers in Week 14. Pittsburgh is a 10.5-point road dog in Cleveland, who are in the ‘win and your in’ spot. Given the Browns’ playoff history, or lack thereof, it only stands to reason that they’ll do everything to win that game. Given Pittsburgh’s current injury status, they’ll probably let them.
So Buffalo doesn’t really need this game, and they don’t get a bye next week, so it’s a prime chance to rest starters. But there is one more thing to consider, and that’s the fact that the Bills are currently 5-0 SU vs. the division this season.
- Week 17 divisional home faves with double-digit wins are 15-3 SU (83%) when looking for a divisional sweep.
HC McDermott’s only SU/ATS home loss this year was the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. He was 5-2 ATS. The other non-cover was against New England, but he still beat them by three points.