Today in my Week 15 NFL betting trends feature, I’m looking at late-season road favorites, the Chiefs vs. Saints, and two home faves fresh off a divisional sweep.
Week 15 NFL Betting Trends
Nine NFL road faves managed a winning record in Week 14 (5-4 ATS), thanks to Baltimore’s incredible 47-42 victory at Cleveland on Monday night. The Browns went from ATS winners, to pushers, to losers — all in the span of a minute and four seconds — after a miserable attempt at the hook and lateral wound up in their own end zone. Guess that’s something for Kevin Stefanski to work on in the off-season.
The straight up record for road faves in the past three weeks is 18-4 (82%), but with an average line of -5 points, you would have to maintain a win-rate of 70% just to break even. As the line maker sharpens his or her pencil, finding value on the road chalk may well indeed require bettors to lay the points.
- The record for Week 15 road favorites since league realignment in 2002, is 56-43 (57%), tied for the second-best in that span (Week 11).
As of Wednesday, seven teams are listed as the road favorite in Week 15. That list includes the Bills, Bucs, Seahawks, Chiefs, 49ers, Browns and Steelers. Since 2012, Week 15 road favorites have posted a winning record in seven of eight seasons.
- Week 15 road favorites are 30-15 ATS (67%) since 2012, the winningest week of the season to lay points on the road.
For more on this week’s premiere matchups, scroll down. I’ve had an incredible second half to the season and my Week 15 NFL picks will be ready to roll on Friday.
Follow @wunderdog for more of my Week 15 NFL betting trends, plus free picks!
Saints QB Taysom Hill has a 7-1 SU/ATS record in games where Drew Brees doesn’t start
Kansas City at New Orleans
Sunday 12/20 4:25 PM Eastern
Line: Chiefs -3 and O/U 51.5
What is the rationale behind road chalk doing so well at this stage in the campaign? In the case of the Kansas City Chiefs, it could be the fact that it’s their final away game of the season.
- Week 15 road faves with back-to-back home games on-deck are 16-9 ATS (64%) the past 10 seasons.
Good teams win at home, but every Super Bowl winning team knows how important it is to play well amidst the distractions of a rowdy road crowd. Well, not this year, but historically speaking. Coach Andy Reid’s all-time road record is 112-69-3 ATS (62%), by far the best of anyone in his field with more than five year’s experience. He clearly sees the importance of playing well away from the confines.
One caution flag for anyone that considers laying points with the Chiefs is their high number of turnovers in Miami. Patrick Mahomes threw three picks last week and KC also lost a fumble.
- Single-digit road faves off a road win where they turned the ball over three or more times are 10-19 ATS (35%).
One thing to keep an eye on in this matchup is the status of Drew Brees. The Saints have designated Brees (ribs) to return from injured reserve, opening a 21-day window. Taysom Hill has done an excellent job as the starter, but there are few QBs that give their team as good a chance to win as Brees. For more on this game, visit my NFL Matchups section.
Trendworthy Tips: Divisional Sweeps
The Packers and Ravens each completed a season sweep over one of their divisional rivals last weekend. While it might seem like a letdown spot, the truth is that home faves in this situation have a 46-7 straight up record immediately following the sweep. The UNDER is also 65% effective in this situation, going 34-18-1. Here are some additional Week 15 NFL betting trends for those two matchups.
Carolina at Green Bay
Line: Packers -9 and O/U 51.5
The Packers (10-3) are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season, favored by more than a field goal in every matchup. They lead the league in scoring with 31.5 points per game and rank top 2 in yards (397.6), red zone (77%) and third down conversions (49.7%).
- The UNDER is 27-8 (77%) when any road team off a loss (Panthers) is facing an opponent that was won three-plus consecutive games.
Jacksonville at Baltimore
Line: Ravens -13 and O/U 47.5
John Harbaugh has a winning record against every division in pro football. The thing that stands out in his ledger, however, are the totals vs. the AFC South. Harbaugh is 24-7 UNDER (77%) vs. the South since taking over in 2008. There is another UNDER trend to consider, as well. This angle is 64% with more than 100 plays.
- Take the UNDER with any team that allowed 30-plus points last week (Ravens), vs an opponent that was blown away by 14 or more points.
This system has a record of 41 OVERS and 72 UNDERS over the past five seasons.